For Macron, it was a chance to demonstrate French leadership in Europe; for Vucic, it provided welcome support from abroad at a time of rumbling discontent at home.
It felt good being Emmanuel Macron at the end of last week in Serbia as the embattled French President received a high-profile reception from Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and members of his government during a two-day visit to Serbia.
Macron’s visit to the Balkans was one of the few occasions when he could be carefree, given his political problems at home. Macron wrote on X in Serbian Cyrillic: “In a world where everything is unstable, it’s nice to have reliable friends and historical constants… It’s a real joy to be back.”
Vucic was equally cordial, saying to Macron: “Thank you for the trust you have shown in Serbia and the hospitality and the honour you showed to our small country.”
The visit underscored a reality that has been in play for the past five years, that France has become Serbia’s main partner in Western Europe.
France already has meaningful contracts in Serbia. French companies RATP Dev, Alstom and Egis Rail are all involved in the ongoing Belgrade subway project. Serbia signed a Memorandum of Understanding with French companies Suez and Vinci Construction Grands Projets on building and operating Serbia’s first wastewater plant in Veliko Selo, in addition to the project of the Waste Management Center in Vinca, in which the French Veolia Group is participating. Belgrade airport is also managed by France’s Vinci Airports.
Twelve cooperation agreements were signed during Macron’s visit, one of the most sigificant being a deal for the exploitation of critical and strategic mineral raw materials, particularly salient given Serbia’s lithium reserves.
However, there were even more important agreements, the first concerning cooperation on nuclear energy. The Serbian President justified this by referring to growing energy consumption in Serbia. “Serbia will not have enough electricity in ten years if it does not use nuclear energy,” he stated.
The second, the highlight of the visit, was an agreement to buy 12 Rafale fighter jets for 2.7 billion euros from France’s Dassault Aviation. This comes after the Mistral infrared man-portable air-defence system was bought from France and after a GM-400 long-range surveillance radar was bought from the French manufacturer Thales.
What were the calculations of the two leaders? For Macron, this was a way to demonstrate French leadership on the European scene. Since 2017, Macron has had a reputation as an informal leader of the EU. That was seriously endangered after his party’s poor performance in elections for the European parliament in June and by the ongoing protests against Macron’s refusal to nominate a government led by the left-wing New Popular Front alliance.
Macron’s brief visit to the Balkans gave Macron a chance to continue to act as a leader on the European stage by engaging one of the continent’s more troubled regions. Macron made enthusiastic statements on how Serbia belongs to the EU family. Many interpreted the visit, particularly the sale of the Rafale jets, as Macron’s play to reduce Belgrade’s ties to Moscow and Beijing, particularly since the French jets are to replace the ageing Russian MiG-29s currently used by the Serbian airforce.
On the Serbian side, Serbian foreign policy is based on hedging, balancing and playing off Western and non-Western powers like Russia and China against each other. This policy is pursued to strengthen Belgrade’s negotiating position in disputes like the one over Kosovo’s status, but also to secure international backing and legitimacy for the Vucic regime generally.
Serbia’s leadership needs Western acquiescence, as the past year saw a series of domestic crises. Last summer, after two mass shootings, the government was faced with major protests, followed by controversies about alleged electoral fraud at the end of the year.
Currently, the Vucic government is faced with nationwide protests against the lithium exploitation project in the Jadar Valley spearheaded by Anglo-Australian multinational Rio Tinto, during which the government has also cracked down on environmental activists, media and civil society. Faced with that context, the Serbian government wants to buy the political friendship of Western governments.
Vucic has openly acknowledged that Serbia has been delivering ammunition to Ukraine via third parties.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Belgrade in July 2024 to arrange cooperation with Serbia on the supply of lithium despite strong opposition in Serbian society to the proposed lithium mine. Securing Macron’s backing is just another boost for the Serbian leader.
No easy path to a European future
Despite the warm messaging, problems and challenges remain. On the nuclear front, just as when Serbia discussed this issue with Russia three years ago, the question remains: does Serbia has the capacities and expertise to enter the nuclear power field?
When it comes to the Rafale jets, Serbia will have a hard time integrating them into the same military system as the Chinese drones and the Chinese missile defence system that it has also bought.
An even bigger question is who will be piloting these jets, given that one of the main problems of the Serbian military is the large-scale departure of military professionals due to unsatisfactory conditions.
The story of Serbia’s EU path is not a particularly happy one. Europhiles in the Balkans have a bad memory of France vetoing the start of EU accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia. Back then, this was done because there was concern in France that the unpopular prospect of new EU members might determine French electoral outcomes.
While this concern has been alleviated since then, there is no evidence that European bloc enlargement will play any meaningful role in French foreign policy, particularly since, historically, France has not been an enthusiastic advocate of EU enlargement but rather a sceptic.
Meanwhile, as a result of both the frustrations with the slow pace of EU accession and the Belgrade government’s anti-EU media campaign, the EU’s approval rating is low in Serbia compared to other Western Balkan countries.
With the current political dysfunction in the EU and Serbia’s declining rule of law, stories of Serbia’s European future ring hollow. It is equally unlikely that Serbia will sever ties with Russia and China.
The recent past has shown that the West remains the main influence in Serbia and the Balkans. But, for the Serbian government, Russia and China allow it stronger bargaining power with the West and are good for domestic self-promotion – an asset that the Serbian political elite will not give up easily and cheaply. Meanwhile, those who oppose the current Serbian government will perceive Macron’s dealings as another sign that Europe is leaving them out to dry.
Still, it appears that Macron and the French companies are happy having secured their contracts. Vucic is also happy having secured Europe’s good graces once again, as shown by his meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen right after meeting Macron.
The question remains whether he will have the same luck in dealing with his own protesting citizens.
