The announcement by the Prime Minister of North Macedonia that the Open Balkan will be reconsidered because “it has flaws” has led many to wonder whether the newly initiated project will be terminated and, if so, to whose benefit and at whose cost. If the entire region agrees that the free movement of people, goods, and capital is in everyone’s interest, why is it being obstructed?
By: Dragana Savic
The economic indicators are undeniable and favor this initiative, but the problem, as usual, lies in politics.
Although the biggest cost would be borne by citizens and businesses, they do not make the decisions.
Those who make the decisions are still evaluating, so the Open Balkan continues, but as one of our interlocutors points out, it moves “at a sluggish pace.”
The Open Balkan will not be terminated, but it will be modified in some way because certain countries and politicians have a negative stance toward the project, Macedonian analyst Siniša Pekevski told Kosovo Online.
Commenting on Prime Minister Mickoski’s statement that the Open Balkan has flaws and that the initiative should be discussed with strategic partners, Pekevski, however, “does not believe this is the end.”
“As with any process, not all challenges that the project will face can be predicted. They can be partially planned, but I don’t believe the Open Balkan project will end. It will be modified in some way because some countries, or certain politicians, have a negative stance on the project. However, elections are coming in Kosovo, and I believe some things will change and improve, and that the project will truly come to life for the fast transfer of passengers and goods,” our interlocutor believes.
He adds that, in the event of a potential termination of the initiative, the greatest loss would be borne by the citizens.
“The citizens would lose the most, followed by the economies. Due to the fact that border congestion would become significant, and the flow of goods wouldn’t be as fast. On the other hand, we see that countries with young people capable of working are emptying out quickly, and it’s likely that both the countries and the citizens living there would seek their fortunes in Western countries, rather than staying here,” Pekevski assesses.
Commenting on the recent statements by the Prime Minister of North Macedonia that the Open Balkan (OB) initiative “has flaws” and will “be reconsidered,” Bojan Stanic from the Serbian Chamber of Commerce told Kosovo Online that the potential termination of OB would not benefit either businessmen or politicians in the Western Balkans region.
He points out that, in that case, there would once again be a slowdown in the implementation of agreed measures regarding the functioning of goods transport, the common labor market, and capital movement.
He adds that this would not suit the politicians in the Western Balkans either, as it would diminish their authority, showing by abandoning such initiatives that the things they claim to be strategically important “are actually not that important.”
“On the other hand, the economy is creating increasing potential to integrate into the European market through supply chains, within the framework of this free trade agreement that these countries and their economies have with the EU, as well as in the international supply chain. The economic potential has long existed, as it does in Serbia—of course, Serbia is a significantly larger economy—but the economy in the region is advancing much faster than political cooperation is. And yet, it is the political cooperation and the political risks that spill over from one neighboring country to another that could slow down economic growth and lead to other social problems,” Stanic assesses.
According to him, Serbia has an interest in maintaining good economic cooperation in the region, primarily because Serbia is the most significant economy, “just as Germany is within the EU, Serbia is within the Western Balkans.”
“Perhaps these differences are much larger in our favor in this particular proportional sense, because within the EU you have France and Italy, whereas in the Western Balkans, other economies are significantly smaller in capacity. However, what is in Serbia’s interest is peace and stability, as is often emphasized—it may sound like a cliché, but it is truly essential for maintaining the country’s credit rating and the region’s attractiveness as an investment destination. What is in Serbia’s interest is not to waste too much time on misunderstandings with regional economies,” our interlocutor notes, reminding that the mission of the Open Balkan has not been fulfilled and that we are “still very far from that.”
He recalls that the Open Balkan Initiative was envisioned to move more dynamically toward creating a unified regional market, but since 2021, there has been a slowdown.
“There have been some reckless or perhaps irresponsible statements from officials, suggesting that the mission is completed, that this is something that will become history, and that other initiatives will emerge, etc. The fact is that there is now a discord between how the officials of Albania or North Macedonia speak, but it is also a fact that the initiative continues to live, albeit at a sluggish pace. It is important to note that many of the agreed-upon elements are being implemented in some way, but the current economic effects are probably the result of a broader atmosphere of mutual economic understanding, rather than the initiative itself,” Stanic states.
He also points out that data shows that in the first seven months of this year, compared to the same period last year, trade between Serbia, North Macedonia, and Albania has increased, both in terms of goods and services. What is particularly important for Serbia is that it is achieving a surplus in this trade.
The current government in North Macedonia wants to avoid the Open Balkan initiative, as it considers it to be different from its political, economic, and social positions, political analyst Ben Andoni told Kosovo Online.
He points out that the latest statements coming from North Macedonia regarding the revision of the Open Balkan follow Rama’s declarations that the “Open Balkan is dead.”
“Rama tried to change his stance in some of the activities that took place later, and this is believed to be due to the reaction from the Serbian side, through Mr. Vucic. Serbia’s position has been that the Open Balkan should continue,” our interlocutor explains.
According to him, this is also happening because Germany, through the visits of its representative Sarrazin to the Balkans, is trying to revive the Berlin Process.
“I think the Macedonians realize that they have less potential than Serbia, but they also see that they do not have equality with Albania. Additionally, the new relationship between the Macedonian majority and the Albanians of North Macedonia, who paradoxically are part of the government, also plays a role,” Andoni concludes.
