In Srebrenica, the report From Words to Deeds: A Chronology of Attempts to Undermine the Constitutional Integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina was presented, which chronologically documents the legislative, political, and institutional actions taken by the authorities of Republika Srpska from mid-2023 to mid-2025. The document provides an analysis of attempts to challenge the jurisdiction of state institutions and dismantle the constitutional order of BiH, and it warns of possible crisis development scenarios.
The first scenario identified by analysts from the Forum for Cooperation and Research is the institutional reintegration of the state through the application of the law. In this case, BiH institutions would implement rulings of the BiH Court and hold those responsible for constitutional violations accountable, with support from the international community through sanctions and conditional financing. This would force RS to withdraw unconstitutional laws and return to a framework of constitutional cooperation.
The second scenario involves the establishment of a parallel legal system within Republika Srpska. In this case, the entity authorities would continue to refuse to implement decisions of state institutions, effectively creating two separate systems of governance. This would, in the long term, paralyze the state, jeopardize its European integration path, and open the door to similar attempts in other regions.
The third scenario describes a political agreement through negotiations between domestic and international actors. In this case, Republika Srpska would temporarily suspend the disputed legislation in exchange for political and financial concessions. Although this would restore superficial functionality to the institutions, the problem of the constitutional crisis would remain unresolved, and the compromises would likely be difficult for voters to accept, especially in the Federation of BiH.
The fourth scenario involves the escalation of the crisis into an international conflict requiring intervention by the OHR and EUFOR. If Republika Srpska continues the militarization of its police and obstructs the functioning of state institutions, the international community could respond with force—through arrests, removal of political actors, and the restoration of constitutional order within the framework of the Dayton Agreement.
The fifth scenario represents the most radical outcome—formal constitutional disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In this case, RS would adopt its own “constitution,” reject all state laws, establish armed and customs forces, and organize a referendum on independence. This would initiate a process of final collapse of the constitutional order and lead to deep destabilization of the region.
The Forum for Cooperation and Research brings together legal and political experts focused on protecting the human rights of returnee communities in the RS entity. The report has been translated into English and delivered to all relevant domestic and international stakeholders.
Written by our correspondent D.I.
